Global Initiatives: Americans and Australians develop a shared vision for improving water quality forecasting

The barrage, on the left of this image, is between Lake Alexandrina, a freshwater lake, and the Coorong Lagoons, surrounded by seawater, and the adjustable gates of the barrage allow water managers to minimize the salinity levels in Lake Alexandrina. Photo courtesy of Cayelan Carey.

Six members of the Virginia Tech Center for Ecosystem Forecasting traveled to Adelaide, Australia, to host a National Science Foundation-sponsored workshop on November 10-15, 2024, with 15 water resource managers representing the federal and state government, water utilities for multiple Australian cities, and science agencies in Australia.

Climate change is degrading water quality in lakes and reservoirs around the globe, motivating the urgent need for new approaches to predict future ecosystem and drinking water conditions for management. To address this goal, the Virginia Tech team has developed the first-ever prototype water quality forecasts for lakes in Australia that are facing multiple management challenges.

The ovearching goal of the multiple-day workshop was to explore how the forecasts could be used by managers to help build climate change resilience and optimize the management of lake water quality.

A key aspect of the collaborative event was a presentation by Quinn Thomas, co-director of the Center, and Freya Olsson, a postdoctoral fellow with the Center and the Department of Biological Sciences. Using the FLARE (Forecasting Lake And Reservoir Ecosystems) forecasting system, the duo presented prototype forecasts and visualizations for Lake Alexandrina. Lake Alexandrina is a major lake in South Australia that covers over 250 square miles and has substantial economic, cultural, and ecological importance.

FLARE is a software forecasting system that utilizes hydrodynamic water quality modeling; automated, cloud-based cyberinfrastructure; and data assimilation to generate forecasts that are near term (days to months ahead), updated repeatedly, and provide a prediction of future conditions with quantified uncertainty.

The Australian water agencies gave overviews of their institutional needs and priorities and described how water quality forecasts might be useful to their organizations.

The workshop also included a trip to Goolwa, South Australia, to the Goyder Institute’s new Research Centre on Lake Alexandrina, where they met with 80 community members representing water agencies, First Nations, and the general public. The Virginia Tech team provided an overview of the forecast prototype and solicited community feedback on how forecasts might be used and disseminated.

As part of the trip, the Virginia Tech team and water managers visited Lake Alexandrina to observe the barrage (a dam with adjustable gates) operations and discuss how best to represent the lake’s attributes in water quality forecast models.

Pictured from left to right are Adrienne Breef-Pilz, Cayelan Carey, Quinn Thomas, and Freya Olsson at Lake Alexandrina. Photo courtesy of Cayelan Carey.

At the conclusion of the workshop, the participants identified key priorities for improving the forecasts, which will be implemented by the Virginia Tech team over the next few months in collaboration with the water managers.

Workshop Goals:

Identify management needs that could be addressed by near-term water quality forecasts for the Murray-Darling Basin
Share, co-develop, and enhance existing forecasts for Lake Alexandrina that can inform water management
Identify potential models for the long-term sustainability and maintenance of a water quality forecasting system at Lake Alexandrina
Strengthen collaboration for developing a potential future joint U.S.-Australian Global Center in Freshwater Forecasting

Written by Dan Stanton, Cayelan Carey, and Quinn Thomas